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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the game for Australian conditions.

His average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|